2012: A Harbinger of Things to Come?

In appreciating the changing climate, people often look to compare one city's expected future climate under an enhanced greenhouse effect with the past climate of another city lower in latitude. 2012 has been an extreme year for much of the United States. It was the fourth warmest winter on record, and the warmest spring on record. As of late June, 69% of the contiguous United States was classified as abnormally dry or drought. I decided to take a closer look and see how the temperatures thus far in Detroit, MI compare to locations in northern and central Kentucky. The results were impressive. Detroit has averaged 0.7 degrees above the 1971-2000 normal for Cincinnati International Airport in Covington, KY; and just 0.6 degrees below the 1971-2000 normal for Lexington, KY for the January 1 through June 24 period.

The mean temperature at Detroit in January 2012 was 30.7F. This compares to a 1971-2000 normal of 29.7 in Covington, KY; and 32.0 in Lexington, KY. 

The mean temperature in Detroit in February 2012 was 32.6F. This compares to a 1971-2000 normal of 34.1 in Covington, KY; and 36.4 in Lexington, KY.

The mean temperature in Detroit in March 2012 was 50.7F. This compares to a 1971-2000 normal of 43.9 in Covington, KY; and 45.6 in Lexington, KY.

The mean temperature in Detroit in April 2012 was 49.4F. This compares to a 1971-2000 normal of 53.7 in Covington, KY; and 54.6 in Lexington, KY.

The mean temperature in Detroit in May 2012 was 65.3F. This compares to a 1971-2000 normal of 63.7 in Covington, KY; and 63.8 in Lexington, KY.

The mean temperature in Detroit for the first 24 days of this month was 71.3F. This compares to a 1971-2000 normal for the first 24 days of June of 71.4 in Covington, KY; and 71.6 in Lexington, KY.

Overall, for the January 1 through June 24 period at Detroit, the mean temperature has been 49.4F. This is 0.7 degrees above the 1971-2000 normal of 48.7 for Covington, KY; and 0.6 degrees below the 1971-2000 normal of 50.0 for Lexington, KY.

What does this mean? Well, this year has been particularly hot due to a combination of factors -- a changing climate and natural variation. However, these extreme temperatures are consistent with climate change theory and will be present more often in the near future. Should nothing be done to limit climate change, the 2012 temperatures in Detroit will likely be the normal by the middle of the century. That is, temperatures in Detroit will likely resemble those of late 20th Century Northern and Central Kentucky. By the end of this Century, the climate in Detroit is likely to resemble places even further south. In fact, by 2100, the temperatures at Detroit could be near late 20th Century Arkansas or Tennessee, or perhaps even northern Alabama!

What's up with that? Comments of the Day!

Hey, it's been awhile! Today, I decided to make a new post to highlight a couple of noteworthy comments from the Watts Up With That climate skeptic denier blog. Consistent with climate modeling, the United States has recently experienced an incredible stretch of warmth. In fact, the most recent 12 months have been the warmest of any 12-month period since reliable records began in 1895. NCDC noted that each of the past 12 months have fallen within the upper tercile of the historic distribution -- a feat with a 1/540,000 chance under random variability. This 12-month period is also notable for containing the 2nd warmest summer on record, the 4th warmest winter on record, and a record-shattering spring season.

Rather, than acknowledge that these temperature anomalies are almost certainly being driven by global warming, Anthony instead goes on the defense accusing NOAA of hiding cold temperature records. The post was followed by the typical asinine nonsense that one can only read following an Anthony Watts post.  Below are my personal favorites!

My personal favorite was a comment from Bill Yarber, which I've shared to the left.  Bill argues that temperatures were 5 to 7 degrees Celsius warmer than today millions of years -- a period of time in which CO2 concentrations were allegedly 7,000 ppm. Bill argues that this proves the earth didn't experience a tipping point. Hmm... Earth to Bill! There weren't 7+ billion people on this planet millions of years ago! I'd reckon a global temperature increase of 5 to 7 degrees Celsius would be pretty freakin' devastating today!

Honorable mention has been reserved for Pamela Gray. Pam, like Bill, is unimpressed by the recent warmth. Pam wonders why, if global warming is true, it has been so darn cold in the Pacific Northwest! Pam reckons that, since CO2 is a well-mixed gas, temperature likewise should be uniform if CO2 were the cause of climate change! Umm... hello? Pam, have you ever heard of something called the WEATHER? You know, like cold fronts and warm fronts, or whatnot? I don't think global warming theory posits that the weather will suddenly cease to exist, or that it can never be colder than normal.  Keep in mind too that recent warming has only been on the order of 1C.